Home Prices Aren’t Declining, But Headlines Might Make You Think They Are
If you’ve seen the news lately about home sellers slashing prices, it’s a great example of how headlines do more to terrify than clarify. Here’s what’s really happening with prices.The bottom line is home prices are higher than they were a year ago at this time, and they’re expected to keep rising, just at a slower pace.But a recent article from Redfin notes,“Price Drops Hit Highest Level in 18 Months As High Rates Dampen Buyer Demand.”And that might make you think prices are declining.Now, while it’s true the latest report from Realtor.com also shows 16.6% of homes on the market had price reductions in May, which is up from 12.7% last May, that doesn’t mean overall home prices are falling.The key is knowing the difference between the asking price and the sold price.Understanding Asking Price vs. Sold PriceIn essence, the asking price, also known as a listing price, is the amount a seller hopes to get for their home when they list it. In reality, sellers can’t just put any price tag on their house and expect it to sell for top dollar. Today’s buyers are savvy customers, and when they aren’t willing to pay a premium for a home because their budgets are strained by higher mortgage rates, sellers need to adjust. And that’s what’s happening right now.Based on market factors and what offers that seller receives, that asking price can change. If a seller isn’t getting much foot traffic, you may see them revise the price and make an adjustment to reignite interest in the home – and sometimes that’s because they’ve overpriced it from the start. That’s where price reductions come in, and when you see “price drops” in a headline, it sounds like declining home prices.Mike Simonsen, CEO and Founder of Altos Research, says:“Not only is the share of homes with price cuts elevated compared to one year ago, but more price cuts are happening each week than last year.”On the other hand, the final sold price is the amount a buyer actually pays when the transaction is complete.Here’s the most important thing to note: Actual sold prices are still rising, and they’re expected to continue to do so at least over the next 5 years.What Does This Mean for Home Prices?So, while there's been an increase in price reductions recently, this doesn't mean overall home values are declining. Instead, it’s a sign that demand is moderating. And, as a result, sellers are adjusting their expectations to align with today's market reality.Even with more price reductions, home values are still growing on an annual basis, as they do nearly every year in the housing market. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices went up 6.6% over the last year (see below):This map shows how prices rose just about everywhere in the country, indicating the market is not in decline.So, while seller price reductions are often a leading indicator that prices may moderate in the months ahead, which experts have been saying for a while is expected to happen, they aren’t necessarily reason for alarm. The same article from Redfin also states:“. . .those metrics suggest sale-price growth could soften in the coming months as persistently high mortgage rates turn off homebuyers. For now, the median-home sale price is up 4.3% year over year to another record high. . .”And with inventory as tight as it is today, price moderation is much more likely in upcoming months than price declines.Why This Is Good News for Buyers and SellersFor buyers, more realistic asking prices mean a better chance of securing a home at a fair price. It also means you can enter the market with more confidence, knowing prices are stabilizing rather than continuing to skyrocket.For sellers, understanding the need to adjust your asking price can lead to faster sales and fewer price negotiations. Setting a realistic price from the start can attract more serious buyers and lead to smoother transactions. Bottom LineWhile the uptick in price reductions might seem troubling, it’s not a cause for concern. It reflects a market adjusting to new conditions. Home prices are continuing to grow, just at a more moderate pace. Connect with Aurhomes Group and Let's Talk Real Estate.
Homebuilders Aren’t Overbuilding, They’re Catching Up
You may have heard that there are more brand-new homes available right now than the norm. Today, about one in three homes on the market are newly built. And if you’re wondering what that means for the housing market and for your own move, here’s what you need to know.Why This Isn’t Like 2008People remember what happened to the housing market back in 2008. And one of the factors that contributed to that crash was that there were too many homes for sale. While only part of the oversupply back then came from builders, the lasting impact is that some people still feel uneasy when they hear new home construction has ramped up.Even though the supply of new homes has grown this year, the data shows there’s no need to worry. Builders aren’t overbuilding, they’re just catching up. The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. Following the crash in 2008, there was a long period of underbuilding (shown in red). And it wasn’t until recently that we finally met the long-term average for how many homes are built in a typical year. This shows, that even with the increase in new builds we’ve seen lately, there won’t suddenly be an oversupply of homes for sale. There’s too much of a gap to make up after over a decade of underbuilding. And if you’re still worried builders are overdoing it, here’s something else that should be reassuring. New Home Construction May Be at Its Peak for the YearThe latest data from the Census on housing starts (homes where builders just broke ground) and permits (homes where builders can start development soon) shows builders are slowing down their pace right now. Why is that?They’re responding to still high mortgage rates and how those are impacting buyer demand. Basically, they’re pulling back appropriately in response to what’s happening in the market. As an article from HousingWire explains: “Even with a massive housing shortage across the nation, homebuilders are completing their pipelines and not seeking as many permits to construct new single-family houses.” Builders remember what happened when they overbuilt in the crash, and they’re looking to avoid a repeat of that. So, they’re being mindful and pulling back a bit.You May Have More Options Now Versus LaterIf you’re considering a newly built home, here’s how this impacts you. With builders seeking fewer permits and not breaking ground on as many new homes, we may be at the peak of new home construction for the year. This doesn’t mean new home construction is screeching to a stop – just that the pace is slowing down now, and that’ll impact what comes to market later this year. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:“Given the recent declines in housing starts, home completions will steadily show declines in about six months.”So, if you’re ready and able to buy now, you may find you’ll have more newly built options to choose from now versus later on. This may be enough reason to kick off your search.Just be sure to work with a local real estate agent you know and trust throughout the process. An agent will have valuable insight into builder reputations and other key factors specific to your market. And if there isn’t much new construction near you, they’ll be able to point you toward a nearby area where there is.Bottom LineWhile it’s true new home construction is a bigger segment of the market than the norm, that’s not a bad thing. Builders aren’t overbuilding, and they’re responding to market signals to avoid repeating the mistakes that were made in 2008. If you want to buy now while new home options may be at their peak, let’s connect. Aurhomes Group is here to help!
The Sweet Spot for Buying Luxury Homes
If you’ve been looking for a home at the high end of your market, but haven’t found the right one, you may have put your search on hold. But according to recent data, now may be the time to jump back in. Here’s why.There Are More Luxury Homes To Choose FromWhat’s considered the top-end of the market, or a luxury home, will always vary by location. But generally speaking, they’re homes that are valued in the top 5% of any given market. According to a recent report from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing, the selection of luxury homes is increasing (see graph below): As the graph shows, there are considerably more single-family luxury homes available now than there were a year ago. In fact, there are even more than there were just a month ago. This means you should have a wider variety of top-of-the-line homes to choose from, each with unique features and styles.Whether you were searching for the latest design elements, like modern kitchens with chef-grade appliances, a breathtaking view, or integrated smart home technology, more luxury inventory means you should have an easier time finding one that matches your taste and lifestyle.Rising Luxury Home Prices Can Help You Build WealthAnother important factor to consider is that luxury home prices are on the rise. According to HousingWire, luxury home prices have increased by 8.7% over the past year. That’s why:“People with the means to buy high-end homes are jumping in now because they feel confident prices will continue to rise . . . They’re ready to buy with more optimism and less apprehension.” This means buying before prices climb higher – and while more inventory is on the market – may be your sweet spot. Because home prices are rising, owning a home could help you build more generational wealth over time. On the other hand, if you wait to buy, you might end up paying more for the same home later on as luxury prices continue to rise. Bottom LineWith increasing inventory and rising prices, there is now a wider selection of luxury homes available. Seize this opportunity to explore high-end properties in our area. Interested in seeing what's out there? Contact us today at Aurhomes Group.
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