Today’s Biggest Housing Market Myths
Have you ever heard the phrase: don’t believe everything you hear? That’s especially true if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in today’s housing market. There’s a lot of misinformation out there. And right now, making sure you have someone you can go to for trustworthy information is extra important. If you partner with a real estate agent, they can clear up some common misconceptions and reassure you by backing them up with research-driven facts. Here are just a few misconceptions they can help disprove. 1. I’ll Get a Better Deal Once Prices CrashIf you’ve heard home prices are going to come crashing down, it’s time to look at what’s happening. While prices vary by local market, there’s a lot of data out there from numerous sources that shows a crash is not going to happen. Back in 2008, there was a dramatic oversupply of homes that led to prices crashing. Across the board, there’s an undersupply of homes for sale today. That makes this market a whole different scenario (see chart below): So, if you think waiting will score you a deal, know that data shows there’s not a crash on the horizon, and waiting isn’t going to pay off the way you’d hoped. 2. I Won’t Be Able To Find Anything To BuyIf this nagging fear about finding the right home if you move is still holding you back, you probably haven’t talked with an expert real estate agent lately. Throughout the year, the supply of homes for sale has grown. Data from Realtor.com helps put this into context. While there are still fewer homes on the market than in a more normal year like 2019, inventory is still above where it was at this time last year (see graph below): So, if you’re remembering all that media coverage about record-low supply during the pandemic, you can rest a bit easier. While the market isn’t back to normal just yet, inventory is moving in a healthier direction. And that means as your options improve, you can let go of this now outdated myth because finding a home to buy won’t feel quite so impossible anymore. 3. I Have To Wait Until I Have Enough for a 20% Down PaymentMany people still believe you need a 20% down payment to buy a home. To show just how widespread this myth is, Fannie Mae says: “Approximately 90% of consumers overstate or don’t know the minimum required down payment for a typical mortgage.” And if you look at the data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you can see the typical homeowner isn’t putting down as much as you might expect (see graph below): First-time homebuyers are typically only putting down 6%. That’s far less than the 20% so many people think they need. And if you’re looking at that graph and you’re more focused on how the number of repeat buyers is closer to 20%, here’s what you need to realize. That’s only because they have so much equity built up in their current house that can be used to make a larger down payment for their next move. This goes to show you don’t have to put 20% down unless it’s specified by your loan type or lender. Many people put down a lot less. Not to mention, depending on the type of home loan you get, you may only need to put 3.5% or even 0% down. So, if you’re buying your first home, you likely don’t need nearly as much for your down payment as you may think. An Agent’s Role in Fighting MisconceptionsIf you put your move on pause because you heard one or more of these myths yourself, it’s time to talk to a trusted agent. An expert agent has more data and the facts, just like this, to reassure you and help break through any misconceptions that may be holding you back. Bottom LineIf you have questions about what you’re hearing or reading, let’s connect at Aurhomes Group. You deserve to have someone you can trust to get the facts.
Unlocking Homebuyer Opportunities in 2024
There’s no arguing this past year has been difficult for homebuyers. And if you’re someone who has started the process of searching for a home, maybe you put your search on hold because the challenges in today’s market felt like too much to tackle. You’re not alone in that. A Bright MLS study found some of the top reasons buyers paused their search in late 2023 and early 2024 were:▶️ They couldn’t find anything in their price range▶️ They didn’t have any successful offers or had difficulty competing▶️ They couldn’t find the right homeIf any of these sound like why you stopped looking, here’s what you need to know. The housing market is in a transition in the second half of 2024. Here are four reasons why this may be your chance to jump back in.1. The Supply of Homes for Sale Is GrowingOne of the most significant shifts in the market this year is how the months’ supply of homes for sale has increased. If you look at data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), you’ll see how inventory has grown throughout 2024 (see graph below):This graph shows the months’ supply of existing homes – homes that were previously lived in by another homeowner. The upward trend this year is clear.This increase means you have a better chance of finding a home that suits your needs and preferences. And if the biggest reason you put off your home search was difficulty finding the right home, this is a big relief.2. There’s More New Home ConstructionAnd if you still don’t see an existing home you like, another big opportunity lies in the rise of new home construction. Builders have worked to increase the supply of newly built homes this year. And they’ve turned their attention to crafting smaller, more affordable homes based on what’s most needed in today’s market. This helps address the long-standing issue of housing undersupply throughout the country, and those smaller homes also offset some of the affordability challenges you’re feeling today.According to data from the Census and NAR, one in three homes on the market is a newly built home (see graph below):This means, that if you didn’t previously look at newly built homes as part of your search, you may have been cutting your pool of options by a third. Not to mention, some builders are also offering incentives like buying down mortgage rates to make it easier for buyers to get a home that fits their budget.So, consider talking to your agent about what builders have to offer in your area. Your agent’s expertise on builder reputations, contracts, and more will help you weigh your options.3. Less Buyer CompetitionMortgage rates are still hovering around 7%, so buyer demand isn’t as fierce as it once was. And when you combine that with more housing supply, you have a better chance of avoiding an intense bidding war. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, highlights the positive trend for the latter half of 2024, saying:“Home shoppers who persist could see better conditions in the second half of the year, which tends to be somewhat less competitive seasonally, and might be even more so since inventory is likely to reach five-year highs.”This creates a unique opportunity for you to find a home you want to buy with less stress and at a potentially better price.4. Home Prices Are ModeratingSpeaking of prices, home prices are also showing signs of moderation – and that’s a welcome shift after the rapid appreciation seen in recent years (see graph below):This moderation is mostly due to supply and demand. Supply is growing and demand is easing, so prices aren’t rising as fast. But make no mistake, that doesn’t mean prices are falling – they’re just rising at a more normal pace. You can see this in the graph. The bars are still showing prices increasing, just not as dramatic as it was before.The average forecast for home price appreciation in 2024 is for positive growth around 3% to 5%, which is more in line with historical norms. That moderation means that you are less likely to face the steep price increases we saw a few years ago.The Opportunity in Front of YouIf you’re ready and able to buy, you may find that the second half of 2024 is a bit easier to navigate. There are still challenges, but some of the biggest hurdles you’ve faced are getting better as time wears on.On the other hand, you could choose to wait. But if you do, here’s the risk you run. As more buyers recognize the shift in the market, competition will grow again. On a similar note, if mortgage rates do come down (as forecasts say), more buyers will flood back into the market. So, making a move now helps you take advantage of the current market conditions and get ahead of those other buyers.Bottom LineIf you’ve put your dream of homeownership on hold, the second half of 2024 may be your chance to jump back in. Let’s connect to talk more about the opportunities you have in today’s market. Aurhomes Group is here to help!
Not a Crash: 3 Graphs That Show How Today’s Inventory Differs from 2008
Even if you didn't own a home at the time, you probably remember the housing crisis in 2008. That crash impacted the lives of countless people, and many now live with the worry that something like that could happen again. But rest easy, because things are different than they were back then. As Business Insider says: “Though many Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond.” Here’s why experts are so confident. For the market (and home prices) to crash, there would have to be too many houses for sale, but the data doesn't show that’s happening. Right now, there’s an undersupply, not an oversupply like the last time – and that’s true even with the inventory growth we’ve seen this year. You see, the housing supply comes from three main sources:- Homeowners deciding to sell their houses (existing homes)- New home construction (newly built homes)- Distressed properties (foreclosures or short sales) And if we look at those three main sources of inventory, you’ll see it’s clear this isn’t like 2008.Homeowners Deciding To Sell Their HousesAlthough the supply of existing (previously owned) homes is up compared to this time last year, it’s still low overall. And while this varies by local market, nationally, the current months’ supply is well below the norm, and even further below what we saw during the crash. The graph below shows this more clearly.If you look at the latest data (shown in green), compared to 2008 (shown in red), we only have about a third of that available inventory today. So, what does this mean? There just aren't enough homes available to make values drop. To have a repeat of 2008, there’d need to be a lot more people selling their houses with very few buyers, and that's not the case right now.New Home ConstructionPeople are also talking a lot about what's going on with newly built houses these days, and that might make you wonder if homebuilders are overdoing it. Even though new homes make up a larger percentage of the total inventory than the norm, there’s no need for alarm. Here’s why.The graph below uses data from the Census to show the number of new houses built over the last 52 years. The orange on the graph shows the overbuilding that happened in the lead-up to the crash. And, if you look at the red in the graph, you’ll see that builders have been underbuilding pretty consistently since then: There’s just too much of a gap to make up. Builders aren’t overbuilding today, they’re catching up. A recent article from Bankrate says:“What’s more, builders remember the Great Recession all too well, and they’ve been cautious about their pace of construction. The result is an ongoing shortage of homes for sale.” Distressed Properties (Foreclosures and Short Sales)The last place inventory can come from is distressed properties, including short sales and foreclosures. During the housing crisis, there was a flood of foreclosures due to lending standards that allowed many people to get a home loan they couldn’t truly afford.Today, lending standards are much tighter, resulting in more qualified buyers and far fewer foreclosures. The graph below uses data from ATTOM to show how things have changed since the housing crash: This graph makes it clear that as lending standards got tighter and buyers became more qualified, the number of foreclosures started to go down. And in 2020 and 2021, the combination of a moratorium on foreclosures (shown in black) and the forbearance program helped prevent a repeat of the wave of foreclosures we saw when the market crashed.While you may see headlines that foreclosure volume is ticking up – remember, that’s only compared to recent years when very few foreclosures happened. We’re still below the normal level we’d see in a typical year.What This Means for YouInventory levels aren’t anywhere near where they’d need to be for prices to drop significantly and the housing market to crash. As Forbes explains:“As already-high home prices continue trending upward, you may be concerned that we’re in a bubble ready to pop. However, the likelihood of a housing market crash—a rapid drop in unsustainably high home prices due to waning demand—remains low for 2024.” Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, points to the laws of supply and demand as a reason why we aren't headed for a crash:“There’s just generally not enough supply. There are more people than housing inventory. It’s Econ 101.” And Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:“We will not have a repeat of the 2008–2012 housing market crash. There are no risky subprime mortgages that could implode, nor the combination of a massive oversupply and overproduction of homes.” Bottom LineThe market doesn’t have enough available homes for a repeat of the 2008 housing crisis – and there’s nothing that suggests that will change anytime soon. That’s why housing experts and inventory data tell us there isn’t a crash on the horizon. Let's connect at Aurhomes Group.
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