How the Economy Impacts Mortgage Rates
As someone who’s thinking about buying or selling a home, you’re probably paying close attention to mortgage rates – and wondering what's ahead.One thing that can affect mortgage rates is the Federal Funds Rate, which influences how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. While the Federal Reserve (the Fed) doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, they do control the Federal Funds Rate.The relationship between the two is why people have been watching closely to see when the Fed might lower the Federal Funds Rate. Whenever they do, that’ll put downward pressure on mortgage rates. The Fed meets next week, and three of the most important metrics they’ll look at as they make their decision are:▶️ The Rate of Inflation▶️ How Many Jobs the Economy Is Adding▶️ The Unemployment RateHere’s the latest data on all three.1. The Rate of InflationYou’ve probably heard a lot about inflation over the past year or two – and you’ve likely felt it whenever you’ve gone to buy just about anything. That’s because high inflation means prices have been going up quickly.The Fed has stated its goal is to get the rate of inflation back down to 2%. Right now, it’s still higher than that, but moving in the right direction (see graph below):2. How Many Jobs the Economy Is AddingThe Fed is also watching how many new jobs are created each month. They want to see job growth slow down consistently before taking any action on the Federal Funds Rate. If fewer jobs are created, it means the economy is still strong but cooling a bit – which is their goal. That appears to be exactly what’s happening now. Inman says:“. . . the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that employers added fewer jobs in April and May than previously thought and that hiring by private companies was sluggish in June.”So, while employers are still adding jobs, they’re not adding as many as before. That’s an indicator the economy is slowing down after being overheated for quite some time. This is an encouraging trend for the Fed to see.3. The Unemployment RateThe unemployment rate is the percentage of people who want to work but can’t find jobs. So, a low rate means a lot of Americans are employed. That’s a good thing for many people.But it can also lead to higher inflation because more people working means more spending – which drives up prices. Right now, the unemployment rate is low, but it’s been rising slowly over the past few months (see graph below):It may seem harsh, but a consistently rising unemployment rate is something the Fed needs to see before deciding to cut the Federal Funds Rate. That’s because a higher unemployment rate would mean reduced spending, and that would help get inflation back under control.What Does This Mean Moving Forward?While mortgage rates are going to continue to be volatile in the days and months ahead, these are signs the economy is headed in the direction the Fed wants to see. But even with that, it’s unlikely they'll cut the Federal Funds Rate when they meet next week. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, recently said:“We want to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2% before we start the process of reducing or loosening policy.”Basically, we’re seeing the first signs now, but they need more data and more time to feel confident that this is a consistent trend. Assuming that direction continues, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, experts say there’s a projected 96.1% chance the Fed will lower the Federal Funds Rate at their September meeting.Remember, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. It’s just that whenever they decide to cut the Federal Funds Rate, mortgage rates should respond.Of course, the timing of when the Fed takes action could change because of new economic reports, world events, and other factors. That’s why it's usually not a good idea to try to time the market.Bottom LineRecent economic data may signal that hope is on the horizon for mortgage rates. Let’s connect so you have an expert to keep you up to date on the latest trends and what they mean for you. Aurhomes Group is here to help!
The Biggest Mistakes Homebuyers Are Making Right Now
Are you planning to buy a home? It's an exciting journey, but it's also easy to make mistakes along the way. Knowing the common pitfalls can help you avoid them and make smarter decisions. Here are some of the biggest mistakes homebuyers are making today:Let's ConnectAvoiding these common mistakes can make your home-buying journey smoother and more successful. Connect with a professional who can help you navigate the process, make informed decisions, and find the perfect home within your budget. With the right support, you can turn your home-buying dreams into reality. Connect with us here at Aurhomes Group!
How Affordability and Remote Work Are Changing Where People Live
There’s an interesting trend happening in the housing market. People are increasingly moving to more affordable areas, and remote or hybrid work is helping them do it.Consider Moving to a More Affordable AreaToday’s high mortgage rates combined with continually rising home prices mean it’s tough for a lot of people to afford a home right now. That’s why many interested buyers are moving to places where homes are less expensive, and the cost of living is lower. As Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow, explains:“Housing affordability has always mattered . . . and you’re seeing it across the country. Housing affordability is reshaping migration trends.”If you’re hoping to buy a home soon, it might make sense to broaden your search area to include places where homes that fit your needs are more affordable. That’s what a lot of other people are doing right now to find a home within their budget. Extra Space Storage explains:“55% of American adults are looking to relocate to a different state or city for more affordable homes and lower costs of living. . . Specifically, states with a strong economy, lower costs of living, and remote work options continue to be the ideal places to live in the U.S.”Remote Work Opens Up More Home OptionsIf you work remotely or drive into the office only a few times each week, you have many more possibilities when looking for your next home. That’s because you can cast a broader net and include more suburban or rural areas nearby. As Market Place Homes says:“People start to reconsider where they want to live when commute times are slashed in half or eliminated altogether. If they have a longer commute but don’t have to do it daily, they may feel like they can tolerate living farther away from their job. Or, if someone works entirely remotely, they can move to a cheaper area and get a lot of house for their dollar.”How a Real Estate Agent Can HelpA real estate agent can help you find the perfect home for your budget. They’re especially valuable if you’re moving to a new, unfamiliar area. Bankrate says: “If you’re moving far away, you may not have a good idea about which neighborhoods or towns will be the best fit. An experienced local agent can help you find the lifestyle you’re looking for in a home you can afford.”So, if you're thinking about relocating to somewhere with more affordable homes, what are you waiting for? With the added flexibility of remote work, you might have more options than before.Bottom LineDreaming of a place where your money goes further? Let’s connect so you have someone to help you find your next home. Together, we’ll make your dream of homeownership a reality.
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