Why Home Sales Bounce Back After Presidential Elections
With the 2024 Presidential election fast approaching, you might be wondering what impact, if any, it’s having on the housing market. Let’s break it down.Election Years Bring a Temporary SlowdownIn any given year, home sales slow down slightly in the fall. It’s a typical, seasonal trend. However, according to data from BTIG, in election years there’s usually a slightly larger dip in home sales in the month leading up to Election Day (see graph below): Why? Uncertainty. Many consumers hold off on making major decisions or purchases while they wait to see how the election will play out. It’s a pattern that’s shown up time and time again, and it's particularly apparent for buyers and sellers in the housing market.This year is no different. A recent survey from Redfin found that 23% of potential first-time homebuyers said they’re waiting until after the election to buy. That’s nearly a quarter of first-time buyers hitting the pause button, likely due to the same feelings of uncertainty.Home Sales Bounce Back After the ElectionThe good news is these delayed sales aren’t lost forever—they’re just postponed. History shows sales tend to rebound after the election is over. In fact, home sales have actually increased 82% of the time in the year after the election (see chart below): That’s because once the election dust settles, buyers and sellers have a sense of what’s ahead and generally feel more confident moving forward with their decisions. And that leads to a boost in home sales.What To Expect in 2025If history is any indicator, that means more homes will sell next year. And based on the latest forecasts, that’s exactly what you should expect. As the graph below shows, the housing market is on pace to sell a total of 4.6 million homes this year, and projections are for 5.2 million total sales next year (see graph below): And that aligns with the typical pattern of post-election rebounds.So, while it might feel like the market is slowing down right now, it’s more of a temporary dip rather than a long-term trend. As has been the case before, once the election uncertainty passes, buyers and sellers will return to the market. Bottom LineIt’s important to remember that while election years often bring a short-term slowdown in the housing market, the pause is usually temporary. Those sales are not lost. Data shows home sales typically increase the year after a Presidential election, and current forecasts indicate 2025 will be no different. If you’re waiting for a clearer picture before making a move, just know that the market is expected to pick up speed in the months ahead.
Why Your House Will Shine in Today’s Market
Even though there are more homes available for sale than there were at this time last year, there are still more buyers than there are houses to choose from. So, know that if you’ve got moving on your mind, your house can really stand out.There are several key reasons why there aren’t enough homes to go around and understanding them will help you see why the market is working in your favor if you’re ready to make a move.What’s Causing the Shortage?1. Underproduction of Homes: For years, the industry hasn’t built enough homes to keep up with demand. As Zillow explains:“In 2022, 1.4 million homes were built — at the time, the best year for home construction since the early stages of the Great Recession. However, the number of U.S. families increased by 1.8 million that year, meaning the country did not even build enough to make a place for the new families, let alone begin chipping away at the deficit that has hampered housing affordability for more than a decade." 2. Rising Costs: Building materials, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic have all made it harder and more expensive to build homes. This can either limit or stop new home construction in some areas. 3. Regional Imbalances: Some markets are more affected by the shortage of homes than others. Popular and more desirable areas have more people moving in faster than new homes can be built. The number of new building permits issued doesn’t always keep pace with job growth in these regions, and that leads to even tighter markets and higher prices.How Big Is the Problem?According to estimates from Real Estate News, the U.S. is facing a housing shortfall of roughly 3.3 million homes, based on an average of several expert insights (see graph below): This shows there’s a significant number of homes that need to be built just to meet current demand from buyers. But what about future demand?According to John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC), over the next 10 years, the U.S. will need about 18 million new homes to meet projected demand, including homes for new households, second homes, and replacements for aging or unusable homes.So, even though more homes are on the market compared to last year, there still aren’t enough of them to go around. This is where you can really win if you’re ready to sell your house.What You Need To RememberIf you’re thinking about selling, the shortage of homes for sale means your house is likely to get some serious attention from buyers. It’ll take years to climb out of this inventory deficit, and the market is still very tight. So, when buyers are competing for relatively few homes like they are right now, that creates more interest in the houses that are on the market, putting upward pressure on prices and ultimately working in your favor.And since every market is different, it’s important to work with a real estate agent who understands local trends. They can help you price your house right and create a strategy to attract the right buyers. Bottom LineWhile there are more homes for sale than there were at this time last year, there’s still a shortage overall. And this puts you in the driver’s seat as a seller. Let’s connect at Aurhomes Group so you have someone who can help you take advantage of today’s market.
How Long Will It Take To Sell Your House?
As you’re getting ready to sell your house, one of the first questions you’re probably asking is, “How long is this going to take?” And that makes sense—you want to know what to expect.While every market differs, understanding what’s happening nationally can give you a good baseline. But for an even more detailed look at real estate conditions in your area, connect with a local real estate agent. They know your local market best and can explain what’s happening near you and how it compares to national trends.Here’s a look at some of the things a great agent will walk you through during that conversation.More Homes Are on the Market, and That’s Affecting How Long They Take To SellAccording to Realtor.com, the number of homes for sale has been going up this year. That means there are more options for buyers, which is great news for anyone looking to buy a home. But as a seller, it also means homes are staying on the market a bit longer now that buyers have more options to choose from (see graph below): One of the big reasons homes sold so fast in recent years is because there were so few of them for sale. And now that there are more houses on the market, it makes sense that they aren’t selling at quite the same pace. Right now, according to Realtor.com, it takes 55 days from the time a house is listed for it to be officially sold and closed.But keep this in mind. While homes might not be selling as quickly as they did last year at this time, they’re still selling faster than they did in more normal years in the housing market, before the pandemic.If you look back at 2017-2019 in the graph above, you’ll see that it was typical for a house to take 60 days or more to sell. So, today’s process is still faster than the norm.That’s because, even with more homes for sale, there are still more buyers than homes for sale. So, homes that show well and are priced right are selling fast. As NerdWallet explains:“Overall, though, demand still outpaces supply. This is hardly a mellow market: Good homes sell quickly . . .” Your Agent Can Help Your Home Stand OutIf you’re looking for ways to make your move happen as quickly as possible, partnering with a great local agent is the key. Your real estate agent will help you with everything from setting the right price to staging your home so it looks its best. They’ll even create a marketing plan that grabs buyers’ attention and will give you key insights about what’s happening in your specific area, so you can plan accordingly and make the process go as smoothly as possible.So, while homes might be on the market a little longer than before, they’re still selling faster than the norm. If you have the right agent and the right strategy in place, your house may even sell faster than you’d expect. Bottom LineIf you’re planning to sell your house, knowing how long it might take is a big part of planning your next steps. Let’s connect at Aurhomes Group so you’ll be able to price, market, and sell your home with confidence.
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